Thailand’s inbound tourism from China is projected to stagnate in 2024, with expected arrivals hovering around 7 to 8 million. The subdued outlook stems from persistent economic challenges in China, compounded by global geopolitical tensions and anticipated U.S. tariff hikes under the incoming Trump administration, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta).
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of Atta, expressed doubts about meeting the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) target of attracting 9 million Chinese tourists by 2025. He noted that this year’s growth was largely influenced by external factors, including China’s weak domestic economy, declining real estate market, and high unemployment rates among its youth, all of which have curbed outbound travel spending.
As of December 8, Thailand welcomed 32.7 million foreign visitors, with China contributing 6.3 million arrivals—its largest inbound market. Despite a daily influx of 15,000 to 20,000 Chinese tourists, total numbers for 2024 are unlikely to exceed 6.9 to 7 million, falling short of the TAT’s 7.3 million goal.
Efforts to boost tourism through a mutual visa exemption scheme introduced earlier this year have not significantly offset broader economic constraints. Additionally, China’s reduced support for outbound tour operators, compared to pre-pandemic levels, and an emphasis on domestic tourism promotion have limited outbound travel growth.
Although independent Chinese tourists have shown increasing interest in Thailand, their spending has remained subdued. Mr. Sisdivachr noted that China’s economic policy adjustments, including fiscal stimuli and moderate monetary easing, could offer some recovery potential. However, potential tariff hikes on Chinese imports by the U.S. may further strain consumer spending.
Thailand’s tourism sector sees a strategic opportunity to expand its reach into new Chinese cities, especially as the two nations mark 50 years of diplomatic relations in 2025. Enhanced support for charter flights and efforts to promote Thailand’s second-tier cities could help draw tourists from underrepresented markets, offering a path for growth despite the current challenges.
Key officials highlighted these concerns during recent discussions, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to secure Thailand’s position as a top destination for Chinese travelers.
